Production declines to boost beef farm incomes in 2025
Despite weaker consumption, beef production across the EU and UK is declining in 2025 and, according to the recently published Teagasc Situation and Outlook for Irish Agriculture July 2025, the resulting higher prices is forecast to boost beef farm income in 2025.
As highlighted by Teagasc economists in the report, EU beef supply fell 3.3% in quarter one 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 and is projected to end the year 2.5-3.0% lower overall. UK production is expected to drop by 6%. EU exports are forecast to dip slightly, while imports are expected to be similar in 2025.
Despite falling output, consumer spending on beef is rising in both regions, as increased retail prices offset lower consumption volumes. Prices have risen in key EU markets such as Germany and the Netherlands.
Additionally, the Teagasc Situation and Outlook for Irish Agriculture July 2025 states, the decrease in beef production is stronger than the underlying decrease in consumer demand, thereby underpinning higher farmgate prices.
Cattle prices and throughput
Through the outlook report, Teagasc economists have also examined finishing cattle prices and throughput, pinpointing that finished cattle prices rose 34% in the first half of 2025 versus the same period in 2024, with a 38% annual increase forecast. Weanling and store cattle prices are expected to jump 45% relative to 2024.
Although steer throughput had increase by 3% in the first half of 2025, overall steer throughput is project to fall 2% for the year. Additionally, the authors note, a decline in dairy cow throughput is expected to contribute to a 1% drop in total Irish beef production.
Beef inputs and returns
On the input cost side, feed prices have declined slightly in the first half of 2025, but fertiliser costs increased in the second quarter of 2025. Overall, the outlook report points to production costs rising by 1% of average.
Despite this increase in input costs, Teagasc economists estimate that margins will improve significantly. Gross margins are expected to reach €1,080/ha for single suckling and €1,130/ha for cattle finishing enterprises – up 90% and 44%, respectively. Net margins are forecast at €550/ha for both.
Given the above, average farm income on both cattle rearing and cattle other farms is forecast to reach €25,000 in 2025, a sharp increase on previous years.
The above was adapted for use on Teagasc Daily from the Situation and Outlook for Irish Agriculture July 2025, prepared by Emma Dillon, Trevor Donnellan, Kevin Hanrahan, Anne Kinsella, Jason Loughrey, Michael McKeon, Fiona Thorne, Brian Moran and John Lennon of the Teagasc Agricultural Economics and Farm Surveys Department.
More from Teagasc Daily: Further boost in farm incomes in prospect in 2025