The times they are a-changin’

By Keith Fahy, Teagasc Drystock Advisor

“The Times They Are A-Changin’” is a song written by the famous Bob Dylan. Although this song was released in the 1960s, it still seems quite relevant, especially when considering the increasing human population, decreasing cattle numbers in many countries, and the reducing availability of productive land.

According to a report conducted by the United Nations, there were 8.2 billion people in the world in 2024. This is predicted to reach 9.8 billion by 2050. In contrast, if we look at cattle numbers, we are seeing significant reductions in many countries worldwide. Land availability for agriculture is also decreasing at a significant rate. According to the United Nations, “every year the world loses 12 million hectares of productive land”. With an increasing global population, reducing availability of productive land, and declining cattle numbers, one must question: Can we guarantee sufficient and sustainable food production?

The U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest since 1951, with 87.2 million head of cattle and calves as of 1 January 2024, according to the USDA. In Canada, the national herd is at its smallest in decades, with the lowest inventory since 1988. The UK saw its greatest decline in female beef breeding-age animals in over 10 years in 2023.

Ireland is also experiencing a reduction in its national herd. According to the CSO, the total number of cattle decreased by 217,700 (or -3.3%) to 6,308,300 in December 2024 compared to 2023. This includes a drop of 29,600 in dairy cow numbers and a reduction of 50,700 in “other cows”.

An ageing workforce, nitrogen and phosphorus limitations, and rising costs are some of the potential reasons for the declining numbers, along with an increase in the number of animals being exported live. A strong CAP policy in Europe is required to ensure sustainable and sufficient food production, and it is essential that we attract younger people into the sector. According to Dr Emma Dillon, a senior research officer and economist with the Teagasc National Farm Survey, the average age of Irish farmers is over 58, with 33% of the farming population over the age of 65.

While many countries’ national herds are in decline, we cannot ignore the size, population, and potential of the Brazilian beef sector. Brazil is over 100 times larger than Ireland and has over 40 times our population. According to the ABIEC report, the Brazilian herd stood at 188 million cattle in 2020, 199 million in 2025, and is projected to reach 212 million by 2030. This constitutes an increase of 24 million head in just 10 years.

We have experienced vast fluctuations in beef prices in recent months. In the past 4 to 5 weeks, we have seen 60 to 70 cent shaved off the base beef price in Ireland. However, prices are still significantly higher than at this time last year. From speaking to people who have eaten in restaurants recently, there seems to be a recurring comment about the price of steak at the moment. Steak has been removed from some restaurant menus, and a price of over €40 seems very common now. An anecdote I recently heard involved a farmer paying €18 for one T-bone steak at a local butcher’s. While the same farmer was delighted with the price he received for cattle sold recently, he didn’t like handing over €18 for one steak!

Beef farmers deserve to make a good income from all the hard work and investment they put in. However, we must remember that if a product becomes too expensive and the public reduces their consumption, this will negatively impact the demand for beef. At the end of the day, the farmer, processor, and retailer must all make money while also providing an affordable product to the consumer. In 2018, beef farmers saw lows of €3.75 for steers, while in April 2025, €7.90 was available for the same steer. That’s a difference of over 110%. Both farmers and consumers could benefit from a more stable market, as it is extremely difficult to advise farmers on when to buy cattle. Farmers are also competing against live shippers, who are extremely anxious to fill orders for their overseas customers.

Going forward, it is vital that we ensure sustainable and sufficient food production. Ireland is an extremely carbon-efficient food producer, aided by our excellent and efficient utilisation of grazed grass. It is also vital that the drystock sector remains attractive and worthwhile for the next and future generations.