The new Teagasc Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) to assist farmers and the Agriculture industry to reduce Greenhouse gas emissions, was launched on Wednesday, 12 July by the Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine Charlie McConalogue TD, in Teagasc Ashtown, Dublin.
Watch the recording of the launch below
Executive Summary
A projection of how animal numbers will evolve to 2030.
Scenario 1: most likely, base case
Scenario 2: lower than base case
Scenario 3: higher than base case
A set of assumed adoption rates for each mitigation measure
Pathway 1: Adoption rates similar to the last MACC
Pathway 2: Higher adoption rates
A Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) is a graph that visualises the abatement potential of GHG mitigation measures, and the relative costs associated with each of these measures. The MACC helps stakeholders make informed decisions about how to allocate resources for emissions reductions. It provides insights into the cost-effectiveness of different abatement options and helps identify the least costly ways to achieve a given emissions reduction target.
Ireland has committed to reducing overall GHG emissions by 51% from 2021 to 2030.
The Teagasc Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) identifies the most cost-effective pathway to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and enhance carbon sequestration in the Agricultural, Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sectors plus (Bio) energy. This is the third iteration of the Teagasc GHG MACC; previous iterations were published in 2012 and 2018. In the current version of the MACC the FAPRI Ireland was used to model three potential agricultural activity scenarios on how animal numbers will evolve in 2030; Scenario 1 (S1) is the most likely base case, while Scenario 2 (S2) and Scenario 3 (S3) project lower and higher numbers respectively. Additionally, two assumed adoption rates for each mitigation measure were assumed; Pathway 1 (P1) had an adoption rate similar to the last MACC, while Pathway 2 (P2) assumed a higher adoption rate that represented the maximum technically feasible.
It is important to note that a MACC cannot be static or definitive. The potential for GHG abatement, as well as the associated costs/ benefits will change over time as on-going research programmes deliver new mitigation measures, or as socio-economic conditions evolve. New agriculture GHG mitigation measures have been added to the current MACC. Additionally the Russian-Ukrainian War has added considerable volatility in terms of energy and commodity prices.
ACTIVITY LEVELS: Total activity data associated with Irish agriculture (dairy and other cattle, sheep, pig and poultry populations, tillage production and fertiliser use) were modelled using the Teagasc FAPRI-Ireland economic model. Three potential agricultural activity scenarios have been examined and two potential adoption pathways.
SCENARIO 1 (S1): Most likely base case scenario predicts growth (8% relative to 2022) in dairy cow numbers and reductions (-29%) in suckler cow numbers over the period to 2030. The 2030 GHG emissions are estimated to be 21.9 MtCO2eq. This forms the central “Business-as-Usual” scenario and MACC mitigation figures within the report have been calculated using this scenario.
SCENARIO 2 (S2): Assumes lower growth in dairy cow numbers than Scenario S1 (4% relative to 2022) and a higher reduction (-43%) in suckler cow numbers. The 2030 GHG emissions are estimated to be 21.1 MtCO2eq.
SCENARIO 3 (S3): Assumes a stronger growth in the dairy sector than in Scenario S1 (12% relative to 2022) and weaker reductions (-16%) in suckler cow numbers. The 2030 GHG emissions are estimated to be 22.8 MtCO2eq.
PATHWAY 1 (P1): Assumes adoption rates similar to the previous MACC.
PATHWAY 2 (P2): Assumes more ambitious adoption rates of measures. It represents the maximum technically feasible adoption rate.
RATES OF ADOPTION: Variable speeds of adoption across the individual MACC measures have also been included to reflect differing levels of technology readiness.
2030 Projected activity data and emissions
| 2022 ‘000 head |
Scenario 1 ‘000 head |
Scenario 2 ‘000 head |
Scenario 3 ‘000 head |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cattle | 7,132 | 6,785 | 6,541 | 7,015 |
| Dairy cows | 1,568 | 1,692 | 1,627 | 1,756 |
| Suckler cows | 887 | 632 | 504 | 748 |
| Total sheep | 5,223 | 4,656 | 4,664 | 4,649 |
| Total pigs | 1,676 | 1,629 | 1,629 | 1,630 |
| Total poultry | 19,765 | 20,911 | 20,912 | 20,910 |
| Total mineral N fertiliser tonnes | 343,200 | 399,156 | 369,806 | 420,989 |
| Total GHG emissions Mt CO2eq | 21.9 | 21.1 | 22.8 |
Animal inventories align with the activity level used in the EPA Agriculture GHG inventory. See Ireland’s Informative Inventory Report 2023 (EPA, 2023)
