Outlook 2021- Economic Prospects for Agriculture

This Outlook report was produced in November of 2020 in the absence of knowledge on whether a post Brexit trade deal would be agreed between the UK and EU before the UK’s transition period comes to an end on Dec 31st 2020. Therefore it was necessary to set out assumptions in relation to the trading arrangements between the UK and EU that would come into force in 2021. Consistent with the Government of Ireland’s operating assumption, no trade deal is assumed.

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This Outlook 2021 report assumes a hard Brexit, with the imposition of trade tariffs is assumed in the absence of an EU/UK trade deal. 

• Analysis assumes no Brexit specific support is provided in the event of a No Trade Deal Brexit
• It is known that both EU and Irish Government have plans to provide short term income support in the event of No Trade Deal Brexit
• However, the level of support that would be received by Irish and other EU farmers is not known
• The income analysis for 2021 in the event of a No Trade Deal Brexit provides an indication of the scale of the support that would be needed to mitigate the impact of Brexit on Irish farming incomes