The recently published Teagasc report ‘Environmental and Economic Modelling of the Impact of Adjustments in the Maximum Stocking Rates Permitted under Ireland’s Nitrates Derogation’ revealed the harsh impact lowering the permitted maximum organic nitrogen (N) stocking rate to 170kg would have on the farm profitability of Irish dairy farmers.
This report was requested by the Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Martin Heydon T.D, as part of ongoing work in preparing Ireland’s next Nitrates Action Programme. The report found that about 49% of Irish dairy farms (7,607), producing 65% of the country’s milk, operated with an organic nitrogen (N) stocking rate above 170 kg/ha. Based on cow banding, the study found that 76% of Irish dairy farms fall into Band 2, 14% of farms are in Band 1, with low milk-yielding cows and 10% are in Band 3, with high milk-yielding cows.
If these 7,609 farms were required to reduce their organic N stocking rate to 170 kg/ha by cutting cow numbers, it would result in an average reduction of 27 cows per herd. This change would lead to a 39% drop in annual family farm income on these farms, averaging a loss of €43,555. Nationally, this would reduce dairy cow numbers by 203,719 (14%) and milk production by 1.2 billion litres, having a relatively dramatic effect on dairy exports nationally.
The report also explored strategies that would allow dairy farmers to comply with policy while minimising the reduction in dairy output including renting additional land; exporting slurry from dairy farms; and contract rearing of dairy heifer replacements combined with removing non-replacement livestock. In these alternative scenarios family farm income would be reduced by €10,928 (15%), €18,841 (19%), and €11,136 (14%) respectively on affected farms.
The report found that reducing cow numbers is the most costly option. Renting land and exporting slurry have similar impact on family farm income with slurry export slightly more expensive, but both involve significant logistical challenges and are subject to securing additional land to farm or to take the slurry. Contract rearing replacement heifers and removing non-dairy animals may be the most cost-effective strategy.